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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The list of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division champions falling away and recent underperformers improving together. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing several other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a given after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still