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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd