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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."